Weekly Price Analysis #21 – Week 38

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Welcome bitcoiners and goldbugs, to your weekly price update.

BTC/USD – Bitcoin Hits Top of Range

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $6,548. The last few weeks have provided respite from the bear market, and buyers and sellers continue to find a point of price agreement between $6,200 and $6,500—a range which has defined the limits of bitcoin movement over the past two weeks.

In the news, another bitcoin Futures contract has expired, which provided some mid-week volatility before the price continued drifting to the top of the range.

Looking ahead, the technicals would indicate more sideways movement can be expected, but pivotal news is also on the horizon—the deadline for Solid VanEck ETF approval is approaching at the end of September, and news outlets are reporting that creditors from defamed exchange Mt Gox are getting ready to return around 160,000 BTC to former investors. If the reports are to believed, then this payout that could send the market tumbling.

This bearish scenario is supported by the flag currently forming on the daily chart. If this breaks to the downside and manages to close below range support at the $6,100 region, then it could yield a drop to the August low of around $5,800.

Should the price break to the upside, then this would confirm the double bottom pattern which has also formed on the daily chart. Given enough volume, this could create the momentum needed to push the price back up to $7,000.

XAU/USD – Gold Settles Around $1,200

Gold is currently trading at $1,209. Just like bitcoin, the price is confined in a familiar range, with buyers and sellers of the yellow metal reaching temporary agreement around the $1,200 region.

Even a weakening US dollar has failed to propel gold prices away from this price area, and as time goes on and volume builds in this region it will continue to become more significant.

In the news this week, safe haven demand has dropped after the United States and China trade tariffs took a more moderated route, providing momentary respite to the trade dispute.

This had little effect on gold, however, which seems to have lost some of its safe-haven appeals. The more powerful catalyst on price action was a plunge in the US dollar to a near four-month low, which supports recent bullish price action across most dollar-denominated metal markets.

This momentum hasn’t been enough to break out the range, however, and bullish movement has perhaps been capped in anticipation of the widely-expected Federal Reserve rate hike next week.

Should the rise of the last few days continue, then an upside breakout is likely to face resistance at the $1,207 and $1,221 regions.

If the range breaks to the downside, then the same key levels are likely to come into in play from the past few weeks, with strong support found at $1,184 and below that $1,173.

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