Weekly Price Analysis #48 – Week 14 – 2019

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Welcome Vaultorians, to your weekly price analysis!

BTC/USD – Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Over?

After a monumental week, bitcoin is now trading at $4,956 — an increase of 23 percent since the last update.

Weeks of inching up in the ascending triangle pattern finally gave way to a face-melting pump on Tuesday, with bitcoin gaining $750 dollars in only 30 minutes.

The move was accompanied by a major spike in volume, and put bitcoin straight through the 200 day moving average (shown in orange) which typically represents the dividing line between bull and bear markets.

On the weekly chart, this pump represents a conclusion of the ascending triangle, but also a mirroring of the inverse descending triangle breakout which occurred at $6k — and it is this $6k level that now represents the next major hurdle for bitcoin to cross on its journey north.

At present, bitcoin is facing resistance at the $5,000 level, a short way down from the new local high which was marked at $5,338.

Having had no significant retrace yet since the pump, we could still expect a further move down to shakeout all the longs that are likely to have jumped in on the bullish momentum. To stay bullish, this retrace needs to stay above support at the $4,500 level, which corresponds to the 0.382 fibb level on the daily chart.

To move higher, we first need to hold support at $5k, and then crack resistance at $5.350- 5,550 before moving on to 6k.

XAU/USD – Gold Coils under Resistance

Gold has stayed relatively stable this week, and continues to consolidate under resistance at $1,293.

At present the yellow metal is trading at $1,289, and awaits a catalyst which is likely to come later today in the release of the NFP monthly US Labour Report. This could set the tone for the next few days of trading – if the data doesn’t meet market expectations, then the dollar is likely to sink and push gold higher. But if the data is strong, then the opposite is likely to happen.

Geopolitically, global worries about recession, and concerns about Brexit, continue to lend support for gold. UK Prime Minister Theresa May wrote to Donald Tusk on Friday morning (GMT), seeking an extension for Brexit until June 30th.

Looking ahead, if gold sinks, then a close below $1,282 is very likely to trigger further downside. This level forms the neck-line of a very rough head and shoulder reversal pattern, which if broken could send the price down to the next support level at $1,268.

If gold regains its appeal and pushes through resistance at $1,293, then the next significant resistance lies at $1,301, which if recaptured could set a bullish scenario back into play.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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