Weekly Price Analysis #46 – Week 12 – 2019

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Welcome Vaultorians, to your weekly price analysis on bitcoin and gold!

BTC/USD – Bitcoin Inches Towards $4,000

Bitcoin is now trading at $3,978. The leading crypto has been stair-stepping up over the past seven days, and has increased around 2.4 percent since the last update.

After pushing through resistance at $,3950, this level flipped to act as support, and is now holding the attack against resistance at the $4,050 – 4,200 level — which has acted as solid resistance since the break of 6k at the end of November 2018.

Bitcoin has now brushed against this $4,050 – $4,200 several times since 6k broke, and each time it has been unable to break through.

On the most recent retests however, the price has moved away from the level with less momentum, suggesting that sell orders at this level are being gradually mopped up, and that ultimately buyers will be able to push through. In fact, price action against this level is in some respects similar to the price action against 6k last year, where smaller and smaller bounces resulted in the level eventually breaking.

But to get through $4,050 – $4,200, bitcoin must first break through and hold $4,000, which as of yet it has been unable to hold for more than a couple of days.

If we push through resistance and get past the $4,200 level, then we are likely to see a violent move up, as this price has been hotly defended by sellers since December, and many shorters are likely to have stops set just above which could trigger a rally, potentially leading up to further resistance at $4,500, $5,500, and ultimately $6,000.

Alternatively, if we close below support at $3,930, then we could be set for a retest of the yearly open at $3,700. This bearish thesis is reinforced by a rising wedge which has formed on the hourly chart.

XAU/USD – Gold Swings Higher on Dovish Fed

Trading at $1,313, gold is up around 0.6 percent on the week.

Fundamental traders this week were watching for the release of minutes from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. These were more dovish than expected, and interest rates were left unchanged amidst slowing economic growth in the US — with GDP growth reduced to 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent in December.

This news pushed the dollar down, and fueled a rally in Gold on Thursday, which broke above $1320, a level not seen since late February.

Ongoing trade talks have also helped bolster gold’s safe haven appeal. Trump’s toughest negotiators are heading to China for talks next week, and are expected to maintain a hardline stance, which could help hold up the price of gold.

On the charts, the price is currently pushing through resistance at $1,313. If we break through and continue, then we are likely to face further resistance at $1,320 , and at the previous highs of $1,350.

If gold moves lower, then immediate support can be found at $1,306, which if broken could lead down to stronger support at $1,294 and $1,280.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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